On February 4, 2025, a piece of blockbuster news sent shockwaves through the international trade community. Donald Trump, who had just embarked on his second term, announced that, effective immediately, a 10% tariff would be imposed on goods from mainland China and the Hong Kong region. Meanwhile, the original $800 duty – free allowance was abolished. This policy sent shockwaves throughout the global supply chain, particularly in the international logistics sectors of ocean freight and air freight, which are now facing unprecedented challenges and transformations.

Ocean Freight: The Double – Whammy of Costs and Routes

Soaring Costs, Shrinking Profits

Ocean freight has long been the primary mode of transportation in international trade, carrying a vast amount of goods across borders. Trump’s recent tariff increase has directly led to a significant surge in transportation costs. For ocean freight companies, on one hand, the increase in the value of goods means a rise in insurance premiums. The insurance coverage previously calculated based on the original value of the goods will be adjusted by insurance companies to hedge risks, inevitably raising the cost of insurance.

On the other hand, port – related fees will also increase accordingly. For instance, US ports may recalculate handling and storage fees for high – value goods to adapt to the new value standards. This series of cost increases will ultimately squeeze the profit margins of ocean freight companies. If companies cannot effectively absorb these costs, they will have no choice but to pass them on to customers, further driving up transportation prices.

Route Adjustments, Extended Transit Times

To avoid the high tariffs, many shippers are re – planning their trade routes. Goods that were originally shipped directly to the US may now be first transported to neighboring countries or regions, such as Mexico or Canada, and then enter the US via land transportation. This shift has significantly extended the ocean voyage. The ship needs to dock at transit ports, load and unload goods, increasing port operation time and transportation links. Moreover, the additional stops will lead to increased fuel consumption, further driving up transportation costs.

For bulk commodities with low time – sensitivity, the extension of transportation time may be acceptable to some extent. However, for seasonal goods and fast – moving consumer goods, such delays may cause them to miss the best selling season, bringing huge losses to shippers.

Air Freight: The Complex Game of Timeliness and Demand

Short – term Surge in Demand, Skyrocketing Prices

Unlike ocean freight, air freight is the preferred mode of transportation for high – value and time – sensitive goods due to its speed and efficiency. After Trump announced the tariff increase, many shippers chose air freight in a rush to get their goods to the US before the tariffs took effect. All of a sudden, the demand in the air freight market skyrocketed, and the airline’s capacity could not meet the supply.

In this situation, air freight prices soared. The already relatively expensive air freight costs increased even more in the market environment of supply – demand imbalance. The freight rates on some popular routes even doubled, which is undoubtedly a heavy burden for companies relying on air freight.

Long – term Demand Hit, Market Contraction

However, this short – term increase in demand is unsustainable. With the continuous implementation of the tariff policy, the trade volume between China and the US will inevitably be curbed. High tariffs have significantly increased the cost of imported goods, reducing consumers’ willingness to buy and leading to a decrease in export orders for enterprises. This directly results in a decline in the overall demand for air – freighted goods and a gradual shrinkage of the air freight market. For airlines, in order to maintain operations, they have to cut flights, reduce capacity deployment, and may even face the plight of layoffs and idle assets.

Industry Dilemmas and Coping Strategies

Both ocean freight and air freight are facing great uncertainties under Trump’s new policy. Logistics companies need to respond actively and find solutions to break the situation. On the one hand, they should strengthen communication and cooperation with customers, jointly explore solutions to deal with tariffs, such as optimizing the supply chain layout and reasonably adjusting transportation plans.

On the other hand, companies should continuously improve their operational efficiency, reduce costs, and improve service quality to enhance their market competitiveness. For example, ocean freight companies can reduce costs by optimizing route planning and increasing ship loading rates; air freight companies can strengthen cooperation with other airlines to achieve resource sharing and improve capacity utilization.

The policy of the Trump administration to impose tariffs on goods from mainland China and the Hong Kong region and abolish the duty – free allowance has had a profound impact on the international logistics ocean freight and air freight industries. In the storm of this trade policy, the ocean freight and air freight industries must actively adapt to changes, adjust strategies, and strive to survive and develop in the complex market environment.

For global trade, this uncertainty also reminds countries that strengthening cooperation and maintaining the stability of the multilateral trading system are the cornerstones of achieving common prosperity.